Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Revised version; accepted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development on 13 February 201

Comparison between adenosine triphosphate bioluminescence and aerobic colony count to assess surface sanitation in the hospital environment

Background: Adenosine triphosphate bioluminescence produced by the firefly luciferase has been successfully introduced to verify cleaning procedures in the food industry according to the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point program. Our aim was to evaluate the reliability of bioluminescence as a tool to monitor the effectiveness of sanitation in healthcare settings, in comparison with the microbiological gold standard. Methods: 614 surfaces of various material were randomly sampled in Policlinico University Hospital units in Palermo, Italy, to detect adenosine triphosphate bioluminescence and aerobic colony count. Linear regression model and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to estimate the relationship between the two variables of the study. Results: Aerobic colony count median was 1.71 colony forming units/cm2 (interquartile range = 3.8), whereas adenosine triphosphate median was 59.9 relative light units/cm2 (interquartile range = 128.3). Pearson coefficient R2 was 0.09. Sensitivity and specificity of bioluminescence test with respect to microbiology were 46% and 71%, whereas positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 53% and 65%, respectively. Conclusion: According to our results, there seemed to be no linear correlation between aerobic colony count and adenosine triphosphate values, suggesting that current bioluminescence technology has not any proportional relationships with culturable microbes contaminating environmental surfaces in health-care settings

Trapped in the morphospace: The relationship between morphological integration and functional performance

The evolution of complex morphological structures can be characterized by the interplay between different anatomical regions evolving under functional integration in response to shared selective pressures. Using the highly derived humeral morphology of talpid moles as a model, here we test whether functional performance is linked to increased levels of evolutionary integration between humerus subunits and, if so, what the strength is of the relationship. Combining two-dimensional geometric morphometrics, phylogenetic comparative methods, and functional landscape modeling, we demonstrate that the high biomechanical performance of subterranean moles’ humeri is coupled with elevated levels of integration, whereas taxa with low-performance values show intermediate or low integration. Theoretical morphs occurring in high-performance areas of the functional landscape are not occupied by any species, and show a marked drop in covariation levels, suggesting the existence of a strong relationship between integration and performance in the evolution of talpid moles’ humeri. We argue that the relative temporal invariance of the subterranean environment may have contributed to stabilize humeral morphology, trapping subterranean moles in a narrow region of the landscape and impeding any attempt to reposition on a new ascending slope

Approaches and concepts of modelling denitrification: increased process understanding using observational data can reduce uncertainties

Denitrification is a key but poorly quantified component of the Ncycle. Because it is difficult to measure the gaseous (NO$_{x}$, N$_{2}$O, N$_{2}$)and soluble (NO$_{3}$) components of denitrification with sufficientintensity, models of varying scope and complexity have beendeveloped and applied to estimate how vegetation cover, landmanagement and environmental factors such as soil type andweather interact to control these variables. In this paper we assessthe strengths and limitations of different modeling approaches,highlight major uncertainties, and suggest how differentobservational methods and process-based understanding can becombined to better quantify N cycling. Representation of howbiogeochemical (e.g. org. C., pH) and physical (e.g. soil structure)factors influence denitrification rates and product ratios combinedwith ensemble approaches may increase accuracy withoutrequiring additional site level model inputs

Decoupling Functional and Morphological Convergence, the Study Case of Fossorial Mammalia

Morphological similarity between biological structures in phylogenetically distant species is usually regarded as evidence of convergent evolution. Yet, phenotypic similarity is not always a sign of natural selection acting on a particular trait, therefore adaptation to similar conditions may fail to generate convergent lineages. Herein we tested whether convergent evolution occurred in the humerus of fossorial mammals, one of the most derived biological structures among mammals. Clades adapting to digging kinematics possess unusual, by mammalian standards, humeral shapes. The application of a new, computationally fast morphological test revealed a single significant instance of convergence pertaining to the Japanese fossorial moles (Mogera) and the North-American fossorial moles (Scalopini). Yet, the pattern only manifests when trade-off performance data (derived from finite element analysis) are added to shape data. This result indicates that fossorial mammals have found multiple solutions to the same adaptive challenge, independently moving around multiple adaptive peaks. This study suggests the importance of accounting for functional trade-off measures when studying morpho-functional convergence. We revealed that fossorial mammals, a classic example of convergent evolution, evolved multiple strategies to exploit the subterranean ecotope, characterized by different functional trade-offs rather than converging toward a single adaptive optimum

The deep-sea hub of the ANTARES neutrino telescope

The ANTARES neutrino telescope, currently under construction at 2500 m depth off the French Mediterranean coast, will contain 12 detection lines, powered and read out through a deep-sea junction box (JB) hub. Electrical energy from the shore station is distributed through a transformer with multiple secondary windings and a plugboard with 16 deep sea-mateable electro-optic connectors. Connections are made to the JB outputs using manned or remotely operated submersible vehicles. The triply redundant power management and slow control system is based on two identical AC-powered systems, communicating with the shore through 160 Mb/s fibre G-links and a third battery-powered system using a slower link. We describe the power and slow control systems of the underwater hub

Body composition as a predictor of chemotherapy-related toxicity in ovarian cancer patients: a systematic review

Objectives:The main objective of this systematic review was to examine the literature evaluating association of image-based body composition with chemotherapy-related toxicity in ovarian cancer patients. A secondary objective was to evaluate the different definitions of sarcopenia across studies. Methods:This systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA-DTA statement and the protocol was registered on Prospero. A comprehensive literature search of 3 electronic databases was performed by two authors. For each eligible article, information was collected concerning the clinical setting; basic study data; population characteristics; technical aspects; body composition features; chemotherapy drugs administered; association of body composition values and toxicities. The overall quality of the included studies was critically evaluated. Results:After the initial retrieval of 812 articles, the systematic review included 6 articles (5/6 studies were retrospective; one was prospective). The number of patients ranged between 69 and 239; mean/median age ranged between 55 and 65 years; the percentage of sarcopenic patients ranged between 25% and 54%. The cut-off values to define sarcopenia and the vertebral levels for evaluation of body composition were different. Five studies included chemotherapy based on carboplatin and paclitaxel, 1 included chemotherapy based on pegylated liposomal doxorubicin. Among the studies including carboplatin and paclitaxel, 3/5 demonstrated an association with toxicity, whereas 2/5 did not. Altogether, 4/6 papers demonstrated an association between the body composition values and the development of chemotherapy-related toxicities. Conclusions:There is a wide variability of results about the association of body composition and chemotherapy-related toxicity in ovarian cancer patients. Therefore further studies, possibly including a comprehensive assessment of body compartments and where the definition of body composition cut-offs is constant, are warranted to better understand this association

Whole-body composition features by computed tomography in ovarian cancer: pilot data on survival correlations

Background: The primary objective of this study was to assess the associations of computed tomography (CT)-based whole-body composition values with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients. The secondary objective was the association of body composition with chemotherapy-related toxicity. Methods: Thirty-four patients (median age 64.9 years; interquartile range 55.4–75.4) with EOC and thorax and abdomen CT scans were included. Clinical data recorded: age; weight; height; stage; chemotherapy-related toxicity; and date of last contact, progression and death. Automatic extraction of body composition values was performed by dedicated software. Sarcopenia was defined according to predefined cutoffs. Statistical analysis included univariate tests to investigate associations of sarcopenia and body composition with chemotoxicity. Association of body composition parameters and OS/PFS was evaluated by log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model. Multivariate models were adjusted for FIGO stage and/or age at diagnosis. Results: We found significant associations of skeletal muscle volume with OS (p = 0.04) and PFS (p = 0.04); intramuscular fat volume with PFS (p = 0.03); and visceral adipose tissue, epicardial and paracardial fat with PFS (p = 0.04, 0.01 and 0.02, respectively). We found no significant associations between body composition parameters and chemotherapy-related toxicity. Conclusions: In this exploratory study, we found significant associations of whole-body composition parameters with OS and PFS. These results open a window to the possibility to perform body composition profiling without approximate estimations

A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction.

Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age-dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age-dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on age-dependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern